If Karl Rove, chief political strategist for President George W. Bush, were a betting man he might be feeling relieved. After months when he faced deteriorating odds on his survival, this week 70 per cent of people betting on his future at the website sportsbook.com are wagering that he will keep his job.

However, Mr Rove has established his reputation as a political strategist by relying on his forensic analysis of the party faithful rather than by gambling on hunches. Now he is facing someone with equal forensic skills: Patrick Fitzgerald, the special prosecutor, who gives a whole new meaning to the prosecutorial byword relentless.