Asia ushered in 2009 with more ghastly economic data. Singapore’s economy may shrink by 2 per cent. South Korean exports tumbled 17 per cent in the year to December. Indian and Chinese factories are scything output. Comparisons with the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 are salutary.

The root causes (although not the asset bubbles) are different but the subsequent brakes on economic growth and rising bankruptcies are familiar. Political risk further soured the picture in 1997-8, leading to riots and the ousting of governments, and is again a factor now – witness Thailand or Pakistan. Threats to social stability in China were barely an issue before; it broadly sat out the crisis, and the internet, a key channel for mobilising protesters, was nowhere. Absent rapid government spending, there is potential for an uglier outcome this time.