As oil prices continue their precipitous decline, the doomsayers in Venezuela are predicting trouble for Hugo Chávez, the president, whose political success owes much to a leap in income from oil exports in recent years.

Analysts say Venezuela is among the most vulnerable Opec countries, requiring one of the highest threshold oil prices to avoid slipping into a current account deficit. Ben Ramsey, an economist at JPMorgan, expects this to happen next year if prices remain at less than $90 a barrel.