Scientists have quantified for the first time the link between warming oceans and increased hurricane activity. The research at University College London shows that a 0.5°C increase in sea surface temperature – which is within the range expected over the next few years – would cause a 40 per cent increase in North Atlantic hurricanes.

The mathematical study, published in Nature yesterday, also finds that local sea surface warming was responsible for about 40 per cent of the increase in Atlantic hurricane activity (relative to the 1950-2000 average) between 1996 and 2005. During that period the sea surface warmed by 0.27°C. Other factors would have caused the remaining 60 per cent of storm activity.