Markets have calmed down since the chaos of last autumn, when it seemed any institution, no matter how grand, could disappear overnight. Appetites for risk have returned. But investors are seized by a new uncertainty: how confident should they be about the prospects for recovery?

Since March, the stampede to safety has been slowly reversing. The dollar is 9 per cent cheaper than four months ago and sovereign bond yields have risen. The oil price has been picking up, this week touching $73 a barrel. The FTSE 100 has been the most sluggish of the mature market equity indices, but even it managed an 18 per cent increase.