There are still no clear signs of a recovery in the US housing market. Perhaps that is just as well. Without the problems for US housing, recent data would point to the risk of overheating and, consequently, higher interest rates. That in turn might choke off the cheap money that has buoyed world stocks for the past year.

The latest surprising data was Tuesday’s Institute of Supply Management survey of the non-manufacturing sector, which showed sharply increased optimism, despite market expectations of a decline.