The main premise for selling crude oil over the last month – aside from concerns about weakening demand from OECD countries – has been the increase in Saudi Arabian production during June, when the kingdom raised output by 500,000 barrels a day, says Thomas Stenvoll, energy strategist at UBS.

“On the face of things, the Saudi production increase appears to have been a resounding success with a relatively small move yielding sharply lower prices,” he says. “However, the proof in terms of higher imports to end-user markets has been missing.”