Financial Times FT.com

Volvo on the block

Published: December 21 2008 18:12 | Last updated: December 21 2008 18:59

Alan Mulally, Ford’s chief executive, is gamely talking up interest in Volvo cars, suggesting last week “a lot of people . . . would love to have that brand”. Ford is considering options for the Swedish maker of luxury cars and will most probably have to sell it. Having passed on the $17.4bn US bail-out taken up by General Motors and Chrysler on Friday, it will have to come up with cash by other means.

Yet reports that Ford is looking for $6bn – close to the $6.4bn Volvo cost in 1999 – look wildly optimistic. This is one awful time to sell a lossmaking carmaker, even with a strong product range and solid reputation. And look at the numbers: Volvo lost $458m pre-tax in the third quarter on $2.9bn of revenues. Annualise those sales and apply a typical industry margin on earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of 9 per cent. At current sector multiples, Volvo might then be worth about $3.5bn. Use 2007’s third-quarter sales figures and the value is nearer $4.5bn. But then apply a forced-sale discount.

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