Turkey and the European Union give every appearance of sleepwalking into the "train wreck" that Brussels warned earlier this year could end Ankara's accession negotiations. That might be welcomed by some existing members who now want their club closed to outsiders, but it would be a strategic failure for the EU, as well as a setback to Turkey's ambition to become a fully developed modern nation.

In a week's time, the European Commission will judge Turkey's reform efforts and its failure so far to meet EU demands on the divided island of Cyprus. A draft of that report, reported in yesterday's Financial Times, suggests a collision by December at the latest, when an EU summit will have to decide whether to continue the entry talks. There was a lot of ill-tempered brinksmanship before the EU finally consented to open formal negotiations, but what there is now is a mix of political fatalism and diplomatic neglect.