Global gloom-mongers from the International Monetary Fund were in Paris on Tuesday presenting a grim report on Europe’s immediate prospects. The continent was “facing the economic storm of a lifetime”, warned Marek Belka, the former Polish prime minister who now heads the IMF’s European department. The economic downturn would last well into next year and even then the recovery would be only gradual.

The tone appeared at odds with the message from Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, less than 24 hours earlier. After a gathering of the world’s central bankers in Basel, Mr Trichet talked of an “inflection point”. In other words (and adjusting for central bankers’ caution) the recession was bottoming out.