For those who dread - or relish - the prospect of China becoming a dominant provider of information technology services as well as a powerful industrial exporter, McKinsey has a message: China is unlikely to do in global services what it has done in manufacturing any time soon.

In a report prepared by its own think-tank and its China office, the management consultancy says China does not have nearly enough capable university graduates to develop a strong offshore services sector similar to the one being built in India. Indeed, graduate talent is so scarce that the problem is already causing headaches for multinationals in China and Chinese companies with global ambitions.