The odds that the US will slide into recession have risen since last month from 50 per cent to 70 per cent by my estimates. The US Federal Reserve took its foot off the brake on the economy this week when it took a pause in tightening monetary policy for the first time after 17 successive interest rate rises in spite of rising inflation. But it is too late. The Fed might have been hoping for a soft landing for the economy but instead it faces recession. The implications will be felt globally. The rest of the world will not decouple from the US economic train, as some analysts predict. When the US sneezes, the rest of the world still gets the cold.

The US recession will be triggered by three unstoppable forces: the housing slowdown; high oil prices; and higher interest rates. The US consumer, already burdened with high debt and falling real wages, will be hard hit by these shocks.