Financial Times FT.com

Property will stay in the doldrums

By Merryn Somerset Webb

Published: November 8 2008 02:00 | Last updated: November 8 2008 02:00

Earlier this week, a TV company called me with a question. When it interviewed me about property prices a few weeks ago, I said that it was entirely possible that house prices would fall 60 per cent before the current crash called it a day. Had I really meant it, and, if so, was I OK with the comment making it into the programme? I was. I don't actually think prices will fall 60 per cent - 40 per cent would be more realistic - but given how far markets, and illiquid markets in particular, overshoot on both the way up and the way down it didn't seem impossible at the time. After all, the auction houses were already saying that they see prices down not far off 30 per cent.

The next day, the Bank of England cut interest rates from 4.5 per cent to 3 per cent making me wonder if I should think about being a bit more optimistic about things. But, however hard I try, I still can't see how the rate cut will make things much better for the housing market. For starters, it doesn't help most of those looking for a new mortgage.

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