Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock ... Can you hear that? It is the countdown to the next financial crisis. I hate to say this just as green shoots are sprouting – the Dow crossed 10,000 points this week, banks are reporting bumper profits and the US recession is all but over – but there is a reason why it is called a “cycle”.

The recipe than turns today’s riches into tomorrow’s disasters is a familiar one.