If the German general election were held next week, the smart money would be on Angela Merkel. With the highest popularity ratings of any chancellor before her, she would finish comfortably ahead.

Yet the poll will not happen for another 12 months, during which time the chancellor’s prospects could worsen considerably. The factor that could turn the current distribution of popularity ratings on their head, according to some analysts, is the economy and whether the robust recovery of the past two-and-a-half years comes to an abrupt end.