China’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $154bn during the first quarter, a record even by the country’s own impressive standards. Yet there are some clues that this may understate the build-up of foreign assets, in turn suggesting “hot money” flows into China have accelerated and that holding down the exchange rate is getting harder.

China has not yet published a full set of current and capital accounts for the first quarter. That leaves the reserves number as the best proxy. There are two reasons to believe that it understates the position. First, the People’s Bank of China is transferring funds to China Investment Corp, the fledgeling sovereign wealth fund with a $200bn kitty. The timing is unclear but economists estimate that $60bn to $100bn of that target could have been shifted to CIC in the first quarter.