Entering this year, one bet seemed clear-cut amid the fog of uncertainty: sterling was wildly overvalued, the dollar had been sold heavily for years and it was time for a reversal. Britons crowding New York department stores were the perfect “sell” indicator for the pound.

So of course, after a first half to the year that has seen the UK economy deteriorate rather faster than the more bearish scenarios had predicted, led by falls in home prices that seem likely only to accelerate, sterling has actually gained slightly on the dollar for the year. It is still oscillating around $2, a landmark that even two years ago seemed scarcely imaginable.