Well before next year’s 10th anniversary of east Asia’s economic crisis, celebrations of the region’s return to health are in full swing. A new World Bank study has proclaimed it a “renaissance”. Investment banks declare that, after being eclipsed by China for a decade, the rest of developing Asia is poised to regain its place in the sun. Then along comes North Korea’s claimed nuclear test to spoil the party. But even without Pyongyang’s reminder of the region’s vulnerability to geopolitical risk, some scepticism would be in order. It is wise to be wary when those caught napping once before sound the all-clear. Just four years before the 1997 crisis, a Bank study lauded east Asia’s “miracle” (to be fair, its latest one does identify some flaws and challenges ahead). International investment managers kept the faith until much too late.

So is today’s optimism any better founded? At first glance, the region’s recovery seems impressive. Annual growth averaging 7 per cent since 2000 has restored nominal US dollar incomes at least to pre-crisis levels. Inward investment has picked up. Shattered banking systems have been rebuilt, balance sheets repaired and excess capacity trimmed, while bulging currency reserves have replaced ruinous reliance on short-term foreign borrowing. Financially, east Asia is in far sounder shape than 10 years ago.