The bulk of the recession has already passed, according to CBI forecasts, but a recovery is not expected to begin until the spring of 2010.

Estimates by the employers’ group suggest the first quarter of this year was the worst period of the recession so far, with a 1.8 per cent decline in output compared with a 1.6 per cent fall in gross domestic product in the final quarter of last year and a 0.7 per cent drop in the third quarter.