World trade volumes have fallen in the second half of 2008, according to new estimates being finalised by the World Trade Organisation. They look set to continue their decline at least until the middle of next year.

Last spring the WTO predicted world trade growth this year of 4.5 per cent in real terms, down from 5.5 per cent in 2007. On Wednesday, it revised up, to 6 per cent, the growth figure for 2007, but it has not yet published its latest prediction for 2008.