According to the conventional wisdom, the odds are in favour of the Democrats win­ning back the White House this year. With the country mired in an unpopular war in Iraq and perhaps in a prolonged recession, voters will treat the November election as a referendum on George W. Bush and punish his party. Some even see the disarray among Republican hawks, social conservatives and economic libertarians as evidence that the reign of the Grand Old Party is over and that a new Democratic majority is dawning.

That is one possibility. But it is worth considering the possibility that US politics has not changed much at all. The era of Republican presidential hegemony that began with Richard Nixon may not be over.