With more pace than a Flintoff inswinger, the FTSE 100 has zoomed about 30 per cent since March. Money has piled in on the expectation of good second-half news. Investors, however, may be ignoring the most fundamental stock indicator: dividends. Research by Capita Registrars shows that in the first half of 2009, companies on the main market cut dividends by 9 per cent compared with 2008. In addition, for the first time since just about anyone can remember, capital inflows exceeded dividends, by £23bn. In fact, more capital was raised in the first half of 2009 than in the five years between 2003 and 2007. This is not the hallmark of a stable market.

A benign interpretation might be that if the economy is coming out of the bottom of the cycle, as the stock market rally would suggest, this fresh capital will act as a buffer to launch opportunities in a growing economy.