Financial Times FT.com

Markets

Published: October 9 2009 09:46 | Last updated: October 9 2009 22:36

In quantum mechanics, so-called superposition is when something exists in two or more states at the same time. These days, the same seems true across economies and financial markets. Investors’ diametrically opposed views on everything from prospects for growth to whether there will be inflation or disinflation are resulting in simultaneous rises in usually opposing types of assets.

Those who believe the worst is over have happily been buying equities since March. They are also pushing oil and commodity prices higher, expecting global demand to recover to pre-crisis levels reasonably quickly. At the same time, for opposite reasons, doom-mongers are piling into bonds: yields on 10-year Treasuries have fallen 10 basis points in the past three weeks and the only US mutual fund net inflows have been into fixed income funds this year. Mixed interpretations also abound in currency land. Buoyant traders wanting risk are loving Australian dollars and Brazilian reals. But safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen are rallying too. Likewise, gold investors are schizophrenic; encouraging signs and negative news both seem reasons to buy. And gold recently touched record levels in nominal terms, while relative movements of inflation- linked bonds suggest other investors think prices are heading south.

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