Travellers to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, are told to beware of bears. When US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke speaks there on Friday during the Fed’s annual symposium, bears of a different kind may themselves need to beware.

Sentiment towards the dollar is heavily negative. The argument behind this is good enough: the Fed is on pause, and if the Fed Funds futures market has it right, the chances are less than one in three that it will raise rates even once more this year. Then next year, if the US economy slows down as sharply as many fear, the Fed could actually cut US rates substantially, taking the remaining supports for the dollar with them.