The Federal Reserve is likely to indicate some increased concern about inflation following its policy meeting this week, but to do so in a manner than avoids any suggestion that interest rate rises are imminent.

Indeed, it may not say that it now sees the risk to inflation as greater than the risk to growth. If it does, it will probably qualify the assessment either by stating that the risks remain quite closely balanced, or by emphasising economic uncertainty. Interest rates will stay on hold at 2 per cent.