Like a new swear word sweeping across school playgrounds, suddenly everyone is talking about 200-day moving averages. The S&P 500 index is flirting with this crucial level, point out the pundits, having broken through it at the end of May for the first time in a year. That is a bullish signal, apparently. If the market drops below its 200-day moving average again, however, many reckon that is not so good.

Should investors beyond the inane chatter of the day-trading blogosphere care? Looking at moving averages is certainly a useful tool for smoothing out volatility and observing longer-term trends. That the 200-day moving averages for Russian and Brazilian equities are still falling in spite of their extraordinary bounce this year, for example, is a sobering reminder that this is still a bear market.