I’m a political not an economics junkie, but I do understand one thing about the connection between the two. If an American president takes an economic hit early in his first term, he will be re-elected; if he takes it late he is a goner after four years.

Over the past four decades this has been an iron law. No other factor – war, peace, scandal, taxation levels, the quality of candidates – comes close to determining the occupant of the White House with such unerring precision.