Lecture 5: Leading into the fog (10 February 2006)

How can managers lead without a long term vision? In a world of provisional knowledge, leaders must think they are right, know they are wrong and still retain the ability to function. To avoid escalating commitment to a failed course of action, leaders should institutionalize an obligation to dissent throughout their organization and be ready to let go of their existing mental models of the future. Good managers pride themselves on their bias to action. In volatile markets, however, patience is a virtue. Leaders must wait actively for these golden opportunities, rather than dissipating energy and resources trying to pursue too many opportunities. Leaders must have a high TQ - or tenacity quotient to persist though the inevitable challenges of navigating through the fog.

Key take away: When leading into a foggy future, scepticism saves but cynicism kills.

Readings:

Rob Goffee and Gareth Jones, 2000, “Why should anyone be led by you,” Harvard Business Review, September/October. (Order a copy from Harvard Business School Publishing online).

Success against the Odds, chapter eleven, “Leadership in an unpredictable world.” (Download the book as a PDF file)

Worksheet:

Assess your leadership strengths and weaknesses. Leading a team or organization through each step in the strategic agility loop requires distinct characteristics. This worksheet provides an opportunity to assess your strengths and weaknesses at each stage. (Download the worksheet as a JPG file).

Book of the day:

The Bhagavad-Gita, Barbara Stoler Miller (Trans.), 1986, (New York: Bantam). Nearly two millennia old, the Gita tells the epic tale of the prince Arjuna who - torn by indecision in the face of conflicting demands - shies from action until the god Krishna sets him straight. A subtle reflection on the tensions between action and knowledge. (Order from Amazon)