Trader: Commodities

I said on August 7 that a reversal around $79 might prove a good opportunity to sell Brent crude oil. The price surged to $80.26 in early October and smartly dropped to $74.98. However, it failed to drop below my stated target of $70 and has since resumed its uptrend. Assuming it breaks back above $80.26, the wave pattern suggests that crude will continue its advance towards $84.39-$85.28.

Thereafter, a major target zone lies in the region of the early $90s. In particular, $92.30 is the 50 per cent retracement level of Brent’s bear market. Once crude peaks, my expectation is for sharp losses to below $70, and beneath $50 much further out.