Trading Ideas

September 16, 2011 5:17 pm

Updates: Gold and cocoa

I called on August 20 for a decent correction in gold, which I saw as having gone too far, too fast. It subsequently made a high at $1,918 per ounce on 23 August, before plunging to as low as $1,705 just two sessions later. It subsequently repeated this trick, surging to $1,924 and then retreating to $1,775 this week. I would still like to see it come back to, say, its 34-week exponential moving average at $1,580 in order to eliminate the speculative froth that has accumulated – and set up a major buying opportunity. Once the next leg of its bull market gets under way, I see it heading to $2,300 and ultimately well beyond.

I said on April 23 that I would fancy going long of cocoa were its price to bounce off its 200-week exponential moving average. That moment is finally now at hand. After several months of gentle decline, cocoa is within a whisker of that line, which currently is at $2,750 per tonne. If it now rallies from this area, I will buy – placing a stop loss below the low of the decline. I continue to project that cocoa could regain its highs of March this year at $3775. Beyond there, significant objectives lie at $4,130 and $4,405.

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