Financial Times FT.com

Experts differ on new year predictions

By FT Money team

Published: December 28 2007 12:55 | Last updated: December 28 2007 12:55

Stuart Law, Chief Executive of Assetz

+5 per cent

While we are currently experiencing a lot of negative sentiment in the property market, this is actually no reason to set the alarm bells ringing. If people look at the fundamentals it is actually very hard to find out what all the fuss is about.

David Austin, managing director of Property for Life

+3 per cent

There are strong buy-to-let activity levels among serious investors – and increasing rental yields as rental demand increases. Investment hotspot areas include the M4 Corridor, university towns such as Southampton, and regeneration areas such as Middlesborough.

Steve Cox, operations director of Spicerhaart Financial Services

+2 per cent

The credit crunch does seem set to continue into 2008. This will produce a subdued environment characterised by low average price growth although some areas, such as regeneration hotpots, will prove more buoyant.

Ross Bowen, managing director, Connells Survey & Valuation

0 per cent

While we expect house prices to come under continued pressure next year, the wider economy remains strong enough to resist any significant drop on a national level.

Steven Marks, lending and operations executive, Newcastle Building Society

0 per cent

Employment is at record levels, supply is still chronically short, and general consumer confidence is holding up. The consensus is that house prices will basically be flat in 2008.

Ray Boulger, senior technical manager, John Charcol

-2 per cent

One factor that will increase supply a little in 2008 – and reduce demand – is the significantly tighter criteria and higher pricing in the sub-prime mortgage market.

Some existing sub-prime borrowers will be unable to remortgage, or afford the rate their mortgage reverts to when the initial deal  finishes, and they will have to sell or their properties will be repossessed.

I predict the net result is that house prices will fall a little in the first half of the year – by up to 5 per cent – but by June the fall in bank rate and an easing of the liquidity squeeze will stabilise the market. In the  second half of the year, transaction levels will improve and prices will partly recover, ending the year down 2 per cent.

Tony Dolphin, director of economics and asset allocation, Henderson Global Investors

-5 per cent

Housing in the UK is overvalued, whether compared to household incomes or rents. Mortgages may be less readily available in the future, especially for those buy-to-let investors who have been behind some of the recent strength of the housing market. So 2008 appears likely to be a year of sharply reduced activity in the housing market and a moderate (in the context of recent gains) fall in house prices.

David Seaton, director of consultancy, Rowanmoor Pensions

-5 per cent

House prices will continue to drop on the tightening of personal borrowing and the large number of buy-to-let properties that will need to be sold to avoid the increased capital gains tax, finishing the year at best 5 per cent lower than at the start of the year.

Michael Gordon, head of investment strategy, Fidelity International

-5 per cent to -10 per cent

Housing is overvalued relative to income and mortgages are harder to obtain thanks to the credit crunch. Buy-to-let owners, who account for around 10 per cent of the loanstock, are extremely vulnerable and the shortage of fresh finance will bite hard.

Richard Cunningham, managing director, City Index Advisory

-8 per cent

I expect the house price data to deviate between different geographical regions and types of property quite markedly. For example, the average house price is of little relevance to the upper tier of five to six-bedroom houses in London and the Home Counties. Also these types of properties and buyers are not reliant upon major leverage. However, new developments, 2-3 bedroom properties bought as second homes and buy-to-let properties will be more vulnerable and tighter credit conditions will act to limit demand. However, as demand remains buoyant, and there’s limited new building, I don’t expect the UK property market to collapse.

Dan Farrow, CEO, TIS Group

-9 per cent

With the reluctance to lend, will come a reduction in house prices, even in the South East “hot spots”. Therefore cash will be king in 2008.

David Stevenson, Adventurous Investor columnist, FT Money

-10 per cent

I reckon prices will go down by 10 per cent next year overall. The weakest parts of the market will be the city centre two-bedders, beloved by landlords, which could see 15 per cent falls, whereas good family homes in bonus belt land won’t fall by much I think – maybe 5 per cent. The bigger concern will be the pyschological fear which I think will sap supply and dent demand. This will in turn spark  bigger interest rate cuts which means that 2009 will be a buoyant year for all.

Fox (not affiliated to Foxtons)

-10 per cent

A semi-tame fox that regularly visits the garden of FT Money columnist Kevin Goldstein-Jackson was offered 16 small, identical size pieces of wafer-thin roast chicken. Each piece was individually numbered from -10 per cent to 0 (zero) and to +5 per cent.

The fox listened attentively to the competition question, looked closely at the pieces of meat and then chose -10 per cent. The fox did not pick -10 per cent because it was an end piece since, after choosing the potential winner, the fox then ate +4 per cent before gathering up the rest to take to its partner.

Foxes are supposed to be intelligent creatures so will it win the competition?

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