The opposition Movement for Democratic Change is claiming victory in Zimbabwe’s elections. But the announcement of the official results is being delayed, amid allegations of vote-rigging by President Robert Mugabe’s ruling Zanu-PF party.

Is this the end of President Mugabe’s 28-year rule? Could the MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai lead a successful government, given that he has been unable to unite the opposition and that the army has vowed not to support him? And how can the country, suffering food shortages and economic meltdown, start to recover, whatever the outcome of the election?

Put your questions to journalist and author Michael Holman. He grew up in the town of Gwelo in Zimbabwe, at a time when the country was still known as Rhodesia. He was Africa editor of the Financial Times from 1984 to 2002 and has published two critically acclaimed Africa-set novels, Last Orders at Harrods and Fatboy and the Dancing Ladies. He answered your questions on April 2.

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The name and face of the late Desmond Lardner-Burke had begun to fade happily from my memory. He has, however, made two cameo appearances recently: one as a philanthropist in your novel Last Orders at Harrods (which raised a smile) and another as an eligible voter in the latest election. With hindsight, what responsibility do you think still attaches to the Rhodesian Front for Zimbabwe’s present predicament or is it all of Mugabe’s own making?
Richard Schwartz, London

Michael Holman: The burden of responsibility for the catastrophe that is post-independence Zimbabwe of course rests on Mugabe’s shoulders, and he has failed to provide the leadership that Nelson Mandela provides South Africa, and the late Seretse Khama gave Botswana. Both of these men, though victims of white rule and white prejudice, became models of tolerance.

But Mugabe is shaped by the white regime that preceded him, and by the British policy failures that characterise its involvement in southern Africa.

To give one example: the Central African Federation, imposed in 1953, was dissolved in 1963, and its assets distributed between its three members countries - Southern Rhodesia, Northern Rhodesia (Zambia) and Nyasaland (Malawi). The British chairman of the conference made the disastrous decision to allocate the bulk of the Federation’s army and air force to white ruled Southern Rhodesia, where a whiff of rebellion was already in the air. In November 1965, Ian Smith made his illegal declaration of independence, which destroyed hopes of a non racial state. At about the same time, the World Bank turned down a Zambian request to fund a railway to the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam, leaving land-locked Zambia dependent on trade routes through apartheid South Africa.

These events and their consequences helped shape Robert Mugabe - and in that sense he is creation of colonialism.

By the way, my pals and I pals used to sneak over the fence for a midnight swim in Desmond Lardner-Burke’s swimming pool - Smith’s security minister lived opposite my home in Gwelo. When I was at university in Harare, a few years later, the same man restricted me to the white area of the town, for “activities prejudicial to the maintenance of law and order”. I took my revenge in my first novel, where he is portrayed as a liberal - the anathema of all he stood for...

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Given that Mugabe’s mandate has now gone (whatever the declared result), do you think it is important enough for South Africa’s interests to ensure he goes? Or would they wait till it gets even worse?
Johnny B

Michael Holman: I would be surprised if South Africa’s stance changed as a result of the poll. Although President Mbeki is regularly called on to ”do something”, the options open to him are limited. Economic sanctions against a country on the verge of collapse don’t make sense and military involvement is hazardous. Mbeki and Mugabe are not ’comrades in arms’ but old adversaries - their guerrillas clashed during the Rhodesian war, and there are old scores to settle.

Yes, Mbeki could take a more robust diplomatic stance in public, making it clear to Mugabe that he is damaging the region. But what next? All that wld achieve is an end to any influence he may have, with no return. So I expect Mbeki will remain in the background, trying to broker a settlement.

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What could and should the international community do? Should there be intervention if Mugabe ’steals’ the result?
Michael Willoughby, London

Michael Holman: If you don’t have a stick, use a carrot! Military intervention in Zimbabwe is a hazardous option that is unlikely to work. It failed in Somalia, it failed when Tanzania invaded Idi Amin’s Uganda (it led to the regime of Milton Obote) and I don’t believe it can work in Zimbabwe.

Instead I think the international community, led by the Commonwealth, should convene as a matter of urgency a ”first aid” conference at which donors make public commitments to funding Zimbabwe’s immediate needs - medicines for clinics, fertiliser for agriculture, books for schools ... and this should be well publicised. Zimbabweans need to know that the outside world cares, and to be given some hope for the future.

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Most of the present policies are socialist in nature, due to President Mugabe’s political orientation. Would capitalism be good for Zimbabwe?
Akimu, Chileka

Michael Holman: What matters is the rule of law and a secure business environment - not whether the policy is ’socialist’ or ’capitalist’. The world is changing so fast that these labels are being overtaken - look at China.

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Given the near total disarray of Zimbabwe’s economy and infrastructure and the limits this causes for human development, investment and growth, what are the key ways to stabilise the economy and encourage FDI and capacity building and control in the country? Is it likely that Tsvangarai would be involved with the same networks of patronage that have supported Mugabe for so long - is he a different wolf but this time in the sheep’s clothing?
Kristian Hoelscher, Brighton, UK

Michael Holman: As I said in an earlier answer, the rule of law and security are critical. Unless Zimbabwe’s new government can provide these essential features that underpin development the country will slide deeper into its social and economic mess. But there is a lot going for the country: a highly skilled exiled population that can be persuaded to return; a broad resource base, from minerals to agriculture and tourism; and a huge well of international sympathy that can be tapped.

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Do you think an MDC-led government would be able to push through substantial economic and land reforms?
Chris, Switzerland

Michael Holman: Perhaps one of the greatest economic challenges is how a new government maintains a land reform programme which redresses the inequalities of the colonial past but at the same time encourages and develops a commercial agricultural sector. This in itself is difficult enough but Mugabe’s legacy has to be undone - which has meant most of the 5000 white-owned commercial farms have ended up in the hands of party officials, army generals or political cronies.

An early test will be whether the new government can convince Zimbabweans that the process of bringing inflation under control will be painful and that their suffering is not at an end. For a party which had its origins in the trade union movement this may be especially difficult. But at least there is now the opportunity for some fresh thinking about the country’s development.

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It is expected the security forces will not support Morgan Tsvangirai. What will happen if they don’t? Will Europe back Tsvangirai?
Andrew, Scotland

Michael Holman: If the security forces stay loyal to Mugabe, brace for trouble. As to the West’s reaction: it will lie low, and get ready to mount an evacuation exercise for he 30,000 or so whites and asians in Zimbabwe.

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If the MDC does win the election, what next for Simba Makoni?
MHN, USA

Michael Holman: If the MDC does form the government, I hope there would be a place for Simba Makoni - a good economist, though a poor politician - in the economic ministry. It would also suggest that it would be a broad-based government - something that Zimbabwe will badly need.

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Do you think that Zimbabweans living outside the country can in any way exert an influence on policy after the election?
Sohrabi, Geneva, Switzerland

Michael Holman: There is a strong case for compiling a register of Zimbabweans abroad, who would volunteer their skills to the new administration and to the private sector. This would not need mean that they had to return permanently - many have put down roots abroad. But if they could serve three or six months stints they could play an invaluable role, both shaping and implementing policy.

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I have heard that Robert Mugabe is playing hard-to-move because he fears indictment at the International Court of Justice. However, I have also heard that there is a statute of limitations whereby no one over the age of 85 is prosecuted by the ICJ. Mugabe is 85 on 21.2.2009. Is this ICJ policy true and, if so, do you think it might explain Mugabe’s recalcitrance?
Michael Power, Cape Town

Michael Holman: I am unaware of this limitation, but your question raises an important issue: there are circumstances when the offer of an amnesty, or a safe location, with a guarantee that the individual concerned would not be extradited, can save lives. Did the fact that Mengistu of Ethiopia was given safe haven in Zimbabwe prevent further loss of life in Ethiopia? I fear that to rule out such an option could create more problems that it solves.

On the other hand, I acknowledge the argument that by making an example of dictators, one serves a warning of the fate in store for those who systematically abuse human rights.

But in as much as I ’know’ Mugabe, whom I first met in 1974, he will stay on to the bitter end. Offers of a safe passage, or fear of justice, will make little difference.

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Has the infrastructure of Zimbabwe, in particular, the roads, railways, the water supplies and the electricity generation and distribution, been seriously damaged over the last 8 years and, if so, is it repairable quickly and at modest cost?
Chris Sworn

Michael Holman: Water supplies are well below need in Bulawayo, where rationing has long been in place. Watch out for the politics of water, as the residents demand access to the Zambesi. Power is also in short supply - South Africa has a crisis of its own - and the railways need new rolling stock. All are sectors where international assistance could have an early impact.

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The election re-run is highly probable looking at the available results. Will Zanu (PF) accept the defeat and save the country time and costs of re-running an election?
Yondela, South Africa

Michael Holman: Latest reports suggest there may well be a run-off for the presidential poll, but if this does take place, the opposition are in a quandary. According to their earlier calcualtions, Mugabe lost outright. If another round off voting takes place, will it mean that the MDC has implicitly accepted that their original calculations of the vote were wrong?

And if there is a fresh poll, will it not give Mugabe a chance to rig the process more efficiently? I don’t expect Mugabe to concede an inch - but we may be reaching the stage where we need to distinguish between the hard-line hardcore Zanu PF (behind Mugabe) and the Zanu PF pragmatists. When the latter realise that the game is up, and discover the courage to say so, Zimbabwe will be within reach of lasting change.

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What have you been able to say about Africa in your novels that you were not able to say during your journalistic career?
Rusty Commency, Washington DC

Michael Holman: The novels give me a platform to express a long-held scepticism about conventional aid policies, and to poke fun at the role played by foreign diplomats, aid workers, politicians, journalists and celebrities. They also allow me to reach a new audience; and to tackle some of the myths about the continent. In short they give me an opportunity to have fun and be subversive!

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About the expert: Michael Holman gained degrees from the University of Rhodesia and Edinburgh University, before becoming a journalist and working in London and Zimbabwe. He was forced, due to his outspoken opposition to Ian Smith’s minority rule government, to flee to Lusaka. He lived and worked in Zambia as a Financial Times Africa correspondent from 1977 to 1984, when he came to Britain permanently to take up the role of Africa Editor at the Financial Times. He retired in 2002 but still travels frequently to Africa and writes columns for the FT and Times online.