 |
London I East Midlands I East of England I North-east I North-west I South-east I South-west I Yorkshire and the Humber I West Midlands I Scotland I Wales I Northern Ireland
The London area is traditionally the focus of a great deal of attention at election time, both because the national media are concentrated in the city and because there is often something interesting going on. London has tended to present an exaggerated version of political trends in the rest of the country in the last couple of decades (and to some extent even before that), with the Conservatives doing extremely well in the 1980s and Labour appearing dominant after 1997.
London has often in the past been thick with marginal seats – in the elections of 1992 and 1997 it contributed more than its share of seats changing hands, but in this election it is less likely to see large-scale change than in the past. The number of marginals according to the classic definition (majority under 10 per cent in the previous general election) has shrunk to ten, and even on our extended definition it is, other than the North East, the region with the smallest proportion of marginals among its seats.
The reason for this shortage is essentially that Labour did so well in 1997 and 2001 that seats previously considered stereotypical marginals (such as Lewisham West, or Ealing North) have swung way past any reasonable definition of marginality. If the Conservatives recover strongly, some of these should start to reappear in the charts.
However, London has been increasingly barren territory for the Conservatives. From their peak of 58 seats in 1987, they slipped to 48 in 1992 and then, catastrophically, to eleven in 1997. Although they picked up two seats on the border with Essex in 2001, their vote across the capital slipped still further. The 1997 losses included not only traditional marginal seats like Eltham and Ealing North, but also a swathe of suburban seats which had previously seemed rock-solid.
The most famous of these was Enfield Southgate, where Stephen Twigg ejected Michael Portillo, but other equally stunning results took place in Harrow West, Wimbledon and Ilford North. Many of these seats swung even further to Labour in 2001.
Local elections in 2002 and 2004 showed that the Conservatives are still in business in several suburban boroughs, with the party gaining control of Redbridge and Barnet (though missing out in Croydon and Bexley) in 2002 and gaining the Brent Harrow seat in the London Assembly in 2004. It would be premature, though, to announce very much of a comeback for them even in these areas.
London voters are quite capable of voting for different parties in different sorts of election; for instance in Merton Wandsworth in 2004 the Conservative vote was 30.8 per cent in the Euro election, 31.6 per cent for Mayor, and 33.5 per cent and 39.2 per cent in the two different sections of the Assembly vote. In relation to Labour, this put them 4.5 per cent ahead, 8.4 per cent behind, 7.4 per cent ahead and 13.7 per cent ahead respectively. It makes projecting general election results rather difficult, even if the boundaries were comparable (which they are not).
References to the GLA results below are based on the party list vote in the Assembly election, which is probably the most accurate indicator of party preferences. Voting patterns will almost certainly be different again when the government is at stake.
The real major-party contest in this election will be in the seats such as Croydon Central, Wimbledon and Putney, where Conservative gains would suggest a measure of recovery in the suburbs and if reflected nationally would mean the parties were running more or less neck and neck (in votes if not seats). The contest is affected by the extent to which Labour can hold off the threat of the Lib Dems and minor parties (notably Greens and Respect), which may well erode Labour’s strength enough to lose several seats even if the Tory vote does not rise at all.
London has not traditionally been very good ground for the Liberal Democrats, but this may be about to change. In 1997 they swept the five South Western seats stretching from Carshalton to Twickenham (all previously Tory) and although they did not gain any more seats in 2001 their vote share rose by nearly 3 percentage points across London. There is one further potential gain from the Tories in Orpington, but their attention is now primarily focused on several Labour inner city seats after their by-election win in Brent East.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
The East Midlands region contains two areas rich in marginals, of which one – eight adjacent constituencies covering the small towns between Leicester, Derby and Nottingham - provides an accurate bellwether to national fortunes, at least in terms of the main Labour against Conservative battle. Labour gained all this group of seats in their 1997 landslide as well as High Peak to the north and another five further to the south in Northamptonshire.
Many in this latter group were more surprising gains, and it is here that the Conservatives must start their comeback this time, although they conspicuously failed to make any headway in 2001 when Labour leads in terms of share of the vote increased in Kettering, Northampton South and Wellingborough. Northamptonshire also provides a good example of how the current electoral arithmetic benefits Labour – a very small overall lead across the county of fewer than ten thousand votes translates into five seats against the Conservatives’ one.
The Liberal Democrats are weak across much of the East Midlands, but they did gain Chesterfield from Labour last time following a steady advance over several elections and the retirement ‘to spend more time on politics’ of Tony Benn. It was looking extremely unlikely that the Lib Dems would follow this with similar gains this time, not least because the party finished third in the 2001 general election everywhere else in the region with the single exception of Harborough.
In the summer of 2004 however a by-election in Leicester South, following the death of Labour MP Jim Marshall, facilitated another breakthrough. It must be said that this seat is even more unrepresentative of the East Midlands than is Chesterfield, containing by far the largest Muslim population of any constituency in the region, an ethnic balance not even shared by neighbouring Leicester East (mainly Hindu) or West. Success in Leicester South will provide a further spur at the general election in next door Harborough (a Lib Dem – Conservative battle) even if further gains remain a distant prospect.
Labour will surely attempt to regain Leicester South at the general election, though will concentrate most resources once again on the marginals gained in 1997. They will do well to retain more than a couple of the Northamptonshire constituencies, but will look to hold on to the cluster of seats further north that will play a large part in determining who forms the next government such as Broxtowe, Erewash, Gedling and Loughborough.
Even when John Major won a barely workable majority in 1992 his party won all of these constituencies (and indeed the whole of the target list below) as part of a haul of 28 in the East Midlands. The Conservatives (current tally fifteen) simply must start winning some back if they are to seriously entertain hopes of winning the general election.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
The East of England has a considerable number of interesting constituencies, and is almost bound to see several switching sides. As well as the classic, hard-fought major party marginals, there are the perennially interesting and rather unpredictable battlegrounds of the New Towns and several coastal constituencies where UKIP might be a factor in deciding whether Labour can hold on.
There are a couple of liberal urban constituencies where the Lib Dems are hoping to inflict their first serious blows on Labour, and a fascinating test case as to whether they can translate local election dominance into general election votes in what has hitherto been a Lab-Con marginal.
The East also has a concentration of safe Conservative seats, accounting for over half the region’s constituencies. The other parties have very few genuine strongholds in the region, and in 1987 the Conservatives managed a nearly complete wipe-out, with Labour’s solitary seat of Norwich South providing the only opposition representative. Labour recovered some ground in 1992, regaining Ipswich and Thurrock after losses in 1987 and capturing Cambridge for the first time since 1966, but it was still an overwhelmingly Conservative region.
Labour gained considerable ground in 1997 and fell back a bit in 2001. The only two cases in which Tory MPs who lost their seats in 1997 made a successful comeback in 2001 were at either end of the region (Norfolk North West and Castle Point). More generally the Conservatives edged into safety in several rural seats where Labour had run them close in 1997. Their modest success was marred, though, by the loss of Norfolk North to the Liberal Democrats.
Several seats seem likely to change hands at the general election. Braintree, Welwyn Hatfield, Harwich and Peterborough all seem quite easy targets for the Conservatives thanks to small Labour majorities and favourable population trends. They will be shocked and disappointed if they do not gain all of them, although the unlikeliest Labour seat of them all, Harwich, has a strong UKIP vote that complicates matters. Beyond this, it is difficult to say, with the real fight probably being for places like Hemel Hempstead and St Albans.
East is made up of three rather distinct sub-regions – East Anglia, the northern Home Counties and Essex. It is probably one of the less cohesive of the English regional units. William Hague’s Conservatives did relatively well in south Essex in 2001, and the signs are that the swing to the right in the area is continuing. This could give the Conservatives hope for strong showings in the New Town seats of Harlow and volatile Basildon, although in the latter case Labour’s majority is large and the BNP a factor, and if things are going really well for them they might consider Thurrock within range. However, Hertfordshire and Bedfordshire have produced better news for Labour in terms of the 2001 results and the mid-term elections since, and the task for the Tories there is tougher.
Liberal Democrat interest in the East is patchy. Colchester looks reasonably safe, while they have a battle on their hands in highly marginal Norfolk North. There are a few seats which in the right circumstances they might hope to prise from the Tories, particularly Norfolk South and around Cambridge. However, in this election their main hopes for gains are from Labour: in Cambridge itself, Charles Clarke’s Norwich South and if they are making real inroads in Watford where they dominate in local elections.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
The North East of England has fewer marginal constituencies than any other region, with as many as 23 of its 30 seats classified here as safe Labour. Nonetheless, the area was at the centre of media attention in both 1997 and 2001 as the home base of Tony Blair, who enjoyed a comfortable majority in his County Durham constituency of Sedgefield.
Prior to the 2001 contest, Blair surrounded himself with a high-profile group of other Cabinet-ranking Labour MPs representing the region, but this number fell away dramatically with the resignations from office of Stephen Byers (Tyneside North), Peter Mandelson (Hartlepool), Mo Mowlam (Redcar) and Alan Milburn (Darlington). Nick Brown (Newcastle East and Wallsend) was another to lose his place in government, and at one point only government chief whip Hilary Armstrong (Durham North West) remained with Blair at the top table, though Milburn has since rejoined the Cabinet. The total could yet rise again as 2001 entrant David Miliband (South Shields) has already joined the lower ranks of government and is tipped for a rapid rise.
The electoral focus this time is likely to switch away from the three seats which Labour gained from the Conservatives in 1997, all of which were held with large majorities in 2001 (Tynemouth, Stockton South and Middlesbrough South East Cleveland) to focus on the continued attempts of the Liberal Democrats to make a general election breakthrough in the urban heart of Labour’s strongest region.
Cases of the Lib Dems gaining Labour constituencies outside of by-election contests are surprisingly rare (Chesterfield in 2001 was an exception not the rule), but Blaydon probably represents their best chance in the country this time in a previously rock-solid Labour seat. Both here and also in Durham City, the Lib Dems made significant advances in 2001, with straight swings from Labour of around 7.5 per cent in each case. In 2003, Durham city council fell on an even larger turnover in votes, and the Liberal Democrats are continuing to target both constituencies to a degree rarely witnessed in this region. They may be helped further by the decisions of sitting MPs John McWilliam and Gerry Steinberg to retire after 26 and 18 years of service respectively, though it should be noted that to win the Lib Dems still require large-looking swings of more than 10 per cent in Blaydon and 15 per cent in Durham, which in normal circumstances would surely be too tough a challenge.
Much of the remainder of the region is fairly safe territory for Labour in any circumstances, which was demonstrated by the party holding on to Hartlepool in a September 2004 by-election in the teeth of an intense Liberal Democrat onslaught following the appointment of Peter Mandelson as a European Commissioner. Labour’s majority ought to recover from the 2,033 margin on that occasion and the contest seems likely to be better remembered outside the region for the strong showing by UKIP, whose victory over the Conservatives prompted a decision that they would fight all seats at the general election for the first time.
The long-term implications for Labour of the crushing ‘no’ vote in the November 2004 referendum on regional government (22–78 per cent) are more difficult to gauge, though it was perhaps a sign of greater political volatility and a message that the region should not be taken for granted.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
The North West of England is often regarded as one of the key barometer regions at general elections and this time will be no different, even though there has been something of a long-term swing in many of its 76 constituencies away from the Conservatives. As elsewhere, the main focus will be on whether they can regain many of the seats lost in 1997, although extra interest will be provided by the threat to Jack Straw in Blackburn from any mass defection of Muslim voters, whether Liverpool Riverside will continue to plumb new depths in terms of voter turnout and finally whether the success of the BNP in some parts of the region since 2001 will continue or subside.
The list of 20 marginals below largely comprises those constituencies lost by the Conservatives in 1997, although a number of above-average swings away from Labour in 2001 have brought in to the reckoning others which were lost in 1992 (Pendle and Rossendale Darwen) as well as two long-established Labour constituencies in Cumbria (Carlisle and Copeland). Many of the key marginals on the North West list are now well down the overall battleground, probably requiring the Conservatives to be well ahead of Labour nationally in order to regain them.
Other traditional marginals in Greater Manchester such as Bury South, Bolton North East and Hazel Grove have disappeared from the list altogether (as has Crosby in Merseyside) because of the failure of the Tories to make any headway last time. It seems unlikely that the Tories will for example repeat their 1970 success here (fifteen gains) – though it should be noted that Mrs Thatcher’s national triumph in 1979 was achieved without the North West, which (along with the other northern regions) remained largely loyal to Labour, though this pattern did not survive Labour’s lurch to the left and subsequent disaster in 1983.
In terms of likely changes at this general election, it would be a major surprise if Labour can again hold on to Lancaster Wyre, while there will be intense competition in the Liberal Democrat- held marginals of Cheadle (which currently boasts the smallest majority in the country) and Southport. South Ribble and the two Wirral marginals could also be close, though Labour will hold on to them unless the Conservatives can start appealing again to the aspiring middle classes which make up such a large proportion of the electorate here and in many other key seats.
One of the most interesting contests could be in the East Lancashire constituency of Pendle, which saw a big drop in the Labour vote in 2001 and the Liberal Democrats regaining the local council in 2004. Of the others, Ruth Kelly’s Bolton West is perhaps the most vulnerable, while many locals are predicting Labour holds in Blackpool North and Morecambe, even though Labour gained both for the first time ever in 1997. The remainder of the list looks a step too far for the Conservatives, including the Cumbrian seats which may have been influenced at the last general election by the foot and mouth outbreak which reached its peak here.
One constituency in Cumbria which does look vulnerable however is Westmorland Lonsdale, seat of rising Conservative star Tim Collins, and the one Liberal Democrat target where they are clearly on an upward trend. Another North West constituency to watch is not on the marginals but the longshots list, namely Blackburn, home to Jack Straw as well as a substantial Muslim population. The issue of Muslims and the Labour Party has been dealt with elsewhere; any mass defection to the Tories here could cause the shock result of the election.
Finally, it will be interesting to watch out for the BNP vote. In 2001, their three best performances all came in the North West, with party leader Nick Griffin polling approximately one in six of the vote in Oldham West and double figure shares also achieved in neighbouring Oldham East Saddleworth (despite its marginal status between Labour and the Liberal Democrats) and Burnley. Since then the BNP have won several council seats in Burnley and they will be looking to consolidate their vote across the region.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
The South East is England's largest region, forming an arc south and west of London from Kent via Hampshire up to Milton Keynes. It is something of a doughnut with a hole, in that the feature that unites most of its territory is a degree of dependence on London, which itself forms a separate region.
The South East has always been the heartland of the Conservative Party. The only election in which it temporarily lost its dominance was almost a century ago, in the Liberal landslide of 1906, but the Tories reasserted their control in 1910. Labour’s modest gains in the party’s previous best elections like 1945 and 1966 have been similarly short lived. In 1970, a fairly narrow Conservative victory, Labour could boast only Eton Slough. In 1992, the flag was carried only in Southampton Itchen and Oxford East. Even in 1997 and 2001, the Conservatives have continued to be the principal party of the region. In 2001 they won 53 seats, to 22 for Labour and eight for the Liberal Democrats, accounting for nearly a third of the Tory strength in parliament.
The failure of the Conservatives in 2001 to claw back any of the seats they lost to Labour in 1997 in the region was unprecedented. In many cases they fell even further behind. The Liberal Democrats picked up another couple of seats, namely Romsey (in a 2000 by-election) and Guildford, but lost the Isle of Wight.
This time, the Conservatives should be able to make at least a little net progress, but they remain a long way off restoring their monolithic control of the region. They should be reasonably optimistic about a few gains in Kent, thanks in part to Michael Howard’s long-established presence as one of the county’s MPs.
All the Kent Labour seats are quite marginal. In the rest of the region, however, prospects are more scattered; Milton Keynes North East is the only non-Kent Labour seat the Tories can regard as a reliable gain, although some Conservatives are confident about Hove, number 48 in the target list. Past this point it gets pretty sketchy, with perhaps Portsmouth North offering their best chance of an above-average swing.
The battlefront between Conservative and Lib Dem is probably the most interesting feature of the South East. Lib Dem victories in South East seats prove that the party is no longer reliant on the ‘Celtic fringe’ and can compete in some of what used to be Tory heartlands. The party will want to expand its holdings, thereby reducing the chances of the Conservatives ever again forming a majority government. Having claimed Romsey and Guildford, the best prospects for Lib Dem gains are now probably Surrey South West and Maidenhead, although they will not want to give up on Eastbourne either.
However, the Conservatives will attempt to reclaim some of their lost seats, including Newbury, Romsey and Guildford in particular. In the past, the Southampton city seats have been key Labour/Conservative marginals, but the interesting battles in the area are now in the neighbouring seats: Romsey and Eastleigh, which the Lib Dems are defending from Conservative challengers, and New Forest East where the Tories need to fend off the Lib Dems. The Liberal Democrats are most unlikely to be shut out of the region because they can regard Portsmouth South, Winchester and Oxford West Abingdon as well as Lewes as pretty safe.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
The South West will be a fascinating region at the general election. For a start, it is thick with marginal seats. Of the 51 constituencies in the region, only sixteen can be regarded as entirely safe for one party or another. Another interesting feature is that it is the most genuinely three-party region in England, with the parties’ 2001 seats being 20 Conservative, sixteen Labour and fifteen Liberal Democrat for vote shares of 38.5 per cent, 26.3 per cent and 31.2 per cent respectively. However, there are only two genuine three-way marginals (the Labour seats of Bristol West and Falmouth Camborne) – most of the action involves the more traditional options of Conservative v Lib Dem (20 seats) and Conservative v Labour (eight seats).
The Conservatives were very disappointed by the 2001 election result in the South West. Far from making gains, they fell back in terms of seats, with the loss of Dorset South to Labour and Teignbridge and Dorset Mid North Poole to the Lib Dems, compensated slightly by the gain of Taunton. This contrasted with a reasonably good performance by the Tories in the mid-term elections in the 1997–2001 Parliament, and a dismal showing in many areas from the Lib Dems particularly in the 1999 Euro election.
In Teignbridge, for instance, the Lib Dems were fourth in 1999 but went on to win the seat in 2001 with a healthy increase in their vote. In this region, and in seats with Liberal Democrat activity, one should be wary of reading across too literally from one sort of election to another.
While the Conservative v Lib Dem battleground is the most difficult to predict, it is quite possible that as in 2001 there will be cross-traffic between the two parties. The Tories will fancy their chances in Devon West Torridge and Somerton Frome in particular, although new incumbents in Dorset Mid Poole North and Teignbridge, and a significant third placed Labour vote in Weston-super-Mare, make the Tory task in these seats a little more difficult. If they gain all of these, they will be doing well, and any other progress against the Lib Dems would amount to a highly significant reconquest of difficult territory and perhaps suggest a national turning of the tide. The Liberal Democrats, for their part, will want to avenge their defeat in Taunton and make some more progress.
Any gains are unlikely to be on uniform swings in line with our target list, but reflect local political factors. Some seats that are superficially very good prospects, like Oliver Letwin’s Dorset West, are in fact quite difficult while some where the Lib Dems start further behind such as Bournemouth East could offer better prospects.
The Conservative–Labour battleground is a bit more predictable. To bet against Tory gains in Dorset South and Forest of Dean would be to throw money down the drain, and Wansdyke, although it is quite a long way down the target list, looks difficult for Labour to hold. Labour also have tough fights on their hands in Stroud and Gloucester. Despite the fairly large Labour leads in the Swindon seats, South in particular can never be regarded as anything other than marginal.
Another interesting but complicating factor in the South West is the strength of Euroscepticism, with UKIP polling well (22.6 per cent) in the 2004 European election, which could undercut the Conservatives but also perhaps damage the Lib Dems, whose voters are far from ideologically consistent. The farcical squabbling into which UKIP has descended since its Euro election success may not put off many people from making a point through a protest vote. The party and anti-EU sentiment are strongest in the most south-western counties, Cornwall and Devon, but would be unlikely to make much impact on the election further north in Wiltshire, Gloucestershire and the defunct county of Avon.
The South West is a more diverse and complicated region than most, and is well worth paying close attention to in reading Britain’s electoral trends.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
The West Midlands is a region traditionally regarded as one of the key electoral battlegrounds fought over by Labour and Conservative at each general election. In the past it has often exaggerated the national trend, swinging strongly to the Conservatives in 1970 and then to Labour in February 1974. On each occasion the voters of the region were following the advice of Enoch Powell, who clearly had a hold on the opinions of a populist white working class section of the electorate.
In more recent elections the West Midlands has been less dramatic, although in the 1980s the Conservatives were able to win some quite working class seats like Yardley and Northfield in Birmingham, and in the last two elections Labour have performed very strongly not only in their urban heartlands but in seats based on smaller towns like Burton, Stafford and Rugby.
In this election the West Midlands will be most interesting if the Conservatives seem on course for a swing of between 4 and 7 per cent (i.e. level pegging or slightly ahead of Labour in the popular vote). If the swing is very small as it was in 2001 it is quite possible that no seats will change hands between the major parties, as Labour’s weakest seat (Rugby Kenilworth) falls only on a swing of more than 2.7 per cent.
The Conservatives’ performance in mid-term elections in the region has been patchy. In many areas they seemed to be doing well in 2003 and 2004 but on closer inspection they were in fact doing relatively worse than they did under William Hague in 2000 or even 1999 in Dudley and Birmingham. Perhaps Hague’s populist approach struck more of a chord in the West Midlands than was acknowledged at the time. That said, recent Conservative successes in seats like Worcester and even Nuneaton have been more notable.
This is not one of the better regions for the Liberal Democrats, who doubled their holding from one to two in 2001 with the gain of Ludlow being added to the (precarious) hold of Hereford. Their ambitions beyond this obviously extend to the perennial hopeful of Birmingham Yardley but it is hard to see where any further progress might be made; possibly Worcestershire West or, if things really go well for them, another east Birmingham seat to add to Yardley thanks to Muslim disaffection with Labour. They are extremely unlikely to win Shrewsbury Atcham, despite sitting MP Paul Marsden defecting to the party from Labour shortly after the last election.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
The Yorkshire and Humber region is broadly divided into three zones. In the north can be found a small number of very safe Conservative seats (there used to be more) covering a wide geographic area, based predominantly on small towns and farmland, extending from Richmond through to East Yorkshire. To the south can be found a larger number of super-safe Labour seats based on the cities of Leeds and Sheffield (as well as Hull) and the large, almost totally extinguished, coalfield area in between. It is in between these two groupings however where most interest will again focus at this election.
The ‘M62 corridor’ includes a significant number of the key marginals which the Conservatives lost to Labour in 1997, a group which has now grown further in size as a result of more longstanding Labour seats having their majorities cut back in 2001. Thus Brigg Goole, Selby, Elmet, Leeds North East, Leeds North West, Pudsey, Shipley, Keighley, Calder Valley, Batley Spen and Colne Valley can be added Bradford West, Halifax, Wakefield, and even Dewsbury.
This group of fifteen constituencies, particularly when added to another cluster of marginals on the Lancashire side of the Pennines, now forms one of the most crucial areas of the country in determining the overall electoral outcome.
There is some indication that at least part of this ‘Pennine belt’ may offer the Conservatives some of their best opportunities for making progress this time. To start with, Labour found it difficult to make the initial breakthrough, failing to make any sort of advance beyond the gaining of York in 1992.
Five years later their success masked a divided pattern – above-average swings in largely middle class constituencies like Leeds North East, Leeds North West, Shipley and Pudsey, lower than average in other grittier seats like Batley Spen and a swing to the Conservatives (one of only two in the country) in Bradford West. The 2001 contest brought swings away from Labour in Halifax, Keighley, Wakefield and many of Labour’s safe seats, though in the event not enough for the Conservatives to make any gains, a major disappointment for then leader William Hague, a born and bred Yorkshireman.
There was further movement away from the Tories in the middle class suburbs of Leeds, and one can now envisage traditional Labour seats in Bradford falling while Leeds North East – once safely Conservative – does not.
A major reason why Labour could do badly here this time relates to ethnic composition. At the time of writing (autumn 2004) it appeared that Labour had lost the support of large sections of the Muslim population in Britain, largely as a consequence of the war in Iraq. Nationally, this may not cost the party too many seats, because Britain’s two million Muslims are overwhelmingly concentrated in a small number of areas, often in inner-city constituencies where it is difficult to see Labour losing.
The Pennine marginals are the main exception to this rule, with approximately a dozen key seats either side of the regional boundary according to the 2001 census containing significant Muslim populations. The problem for Labour is their reliance on these voters, with most estimates suggesting they could count on more than 70 per cent support in previous general elections.
A key factor could be whether the bulk of Muslim voters are prepared to jump straight to the Conservatives. If they do (and this seems unlikely at present) and there is a small national movement from Labour to Conservative, the result will be not only marginal seats such as Batley Spen, Bradford West and Keighley changing hands, but also the ‘longshots’ of Dewsbury and Bradford North. If however Muslim voters opt for the Liberal Democrats as an alternative, then a number of vulnerable Labour MPs will probably hold on despite reduced shares of the vote as a result of a divided opposition.
This may all be pure conjecture; at the most recent (2004) council elections there were some signs of Labour’s support among Muslims recovering – in Yorkshire at least – and Iraq may be more distant once the general election is called.
Whatever happens to the Muslim vote, some of Labour’s seats elsewhere are so marginal that to win them for a third time would be miraculous. In this category can be found Shipley and Selby.
On the other hand, it is difficult to see the Conservatives gaining Wakefield or Leeds North East, so it is those constituencies in between such as Elmet, Brigg Goole and Pudsey which will be national barometers. The Liberal Democrats seem set to hold both of their 1997 gains in Harrogate and Sheffield Hallam and will target David Davis in Haltemprice Howden, building on their local strength on the suburban fringes of Hull.
However, it may be that their best chance of a further gain is in Leeds North West, where despite a current position of third they may benefit from a retiring Labour MP, a large student population and the continued unfashionability of the Conservatives in such places. Finally, it will be interesting to see how the BNP performs, particularly in the small towns along the M62 corridor. Several of their council election victories have come here, for example in Keighley in 2004 and before that at by-elections in Mixenden (Halifax) and Heckmondwike (Dewsbury) – a large vote in the latter constituency in particular would not be a surprise given previous patterns.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
Boundary changes are set to reduce Scotland’s parliamentary weight at the general election, less than a tenth of Westminster MPs now elected north of the border. But despite this and the introduction of a devolved parliament with powers over a swathe of domestic policy, Scotland remains of vital importance in the nationwide contest, not least because of Labour’s continued strength in the 59 redrawn constituencies and the continued high profile of their Westminster representatives in government.
Labour also face challenges in Scotland on a wider number of fronts than anywhere else in the UK, with more of their seats at risk to the Liberal Democrats than any other part of the country. There is the question of whether the SNP can reverse their recent difficulties now that Alex Salmond has once again become party leader and the ongoing story of whether the Conservatives, who could boast 20 or more Scottish MPs at all bar one general election between 1945 and 1983, but none by 1997, can now make a significant comeback.
The relationship between the two Parliaments at Westminster and Holyrood and the divergences between them has also become a fascinating feature of modern British politics. The differences can be seen at various levels, from policy formulation (for example distinctive Scots policies on hunting, care for the elderly and student finance) to the varying relationships between politicians in the two Parliaments, to the different constituency boundaries on which they will now be elected, something that will doubtless cause much confusion at the general election.
Of particular interest is the increasingly divergent pattern of party competition, with the Scottish Parliament currently including a clutch of Greens (seven), Scottish Socialists (six) and a variety of Independents as well as large delegations of Conservatives (eighteen), Liberal Democrats (seventeen) and Scottish Nationalists (27). This mainly results from the two-vote proportional representation system used in Scottish elections, although polling data also suggests that Labour perform worse and the SNP better at Scottish parliamentary contests than UK general elections.
Whatever the explanations, Labour’s current total of 50 seats in the Scottish Parliament comprise less than 40 per cent of the total, leading to a very different and more diverse political situation than among Scotland’s MPs, most obviously necessitating a coalition with the Lib Dems – although even the two parties together now barely enjoy an overall majority.
In terms of representation at Westminster, Labour remain in a strong position, ‘holding’ 46 of the 59 redrawn constituencies according to the estimates, of which a large number (29) are classified here as safe seats. Labour’s dominant position dates back many years – they have won more than two thirds of Scotland’s parliamentary constituencies at all general elections since 1983 – though they fell below this proportion at the 2003 Holyrood elections even on the traditional first past the post constituency vote.
The worry now for Labour is that in government they are starting to be seen as the establishment party, which could lead opposition voters to cast tactical ballots against them, rather as happened to the Conservatives in a devastatingly effective manner in the 1980s and 1990s. Of the twelve Labour seats at risk in Scotland at this election (out of eighteen marginals in total), the Conservatives are second in five, the Liberal Democrats in four, and the SNP in three.
Even if one or two of those parties fare badly in general, Labour still face the risk of a localised pincer movement with votes polarising in the direction of the best-placed opposition candidate. Particularly interesting in this regard will be the redrawn constituencies of Dunbartonshire East, Dumfries Galloway and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale Tweeddale while Labour are also at risk from a uniting of the opposition vote in more long-standing marginals such as Aberdeen South and Edinburgh South.
The party with arguably the most to gain from tactical voting of this nature are the Liberal Democrats, whose support at general elections hitherto has been very much concentrated in rural Scotland, particularly in the Highlands and Borders areas. The increasing Lib Dem challenge in urban areas has been underlined by their winning both Aberdeen South and Edinburgh South in elections for the Scottish Parliament. These two are plausible, if by no means automatic, gains at the general election and could be added to if the party mops up the anti-Labour vote in the ‘new’ constituencies of East Dunbartonshire and Dumfriesshire mentioned above.
Gaining all these seats (without losing any others to the Conservatives) would take the Lib Dem tally at Westminster from an existing total of nine (down one as a result of boundary changes in the Borders) up to thirteen; even if only two of these four seats are gained it would mark the best performance for the party in a postwar general election.
Although this number of seats may still seem small, it should be noted that the Lib Dems are now clearly the second largest party in Scotland in terms of Westminster representation (if not votes) and that this number has been steadily rising since 1979 when their number of MPs returned was just three. This is of course part of a wider national pattern, but under a Scottish leader there can be no doubting the importance of what happens in Scotland to the national Lib Dem performance.
At many recent elections north of the border, particularly for the Scottish parliament, the biggest threat to Labour has come not from the Lib Dems or the Conservatives but the SNP. Yet in terms of constituencies, nationalist hopes have never translated into a major breakthrough at Labour’s expense.
Worries about the nationalists have been ever-present since the 1967 Hamilton by-election triumph, but aside from a short-lived surge in 1974 and two other victories in by-elections in Glasgow Govan, both of which were reversed at the following general elections, the nationalists have failed to make parliamentary gains in Labour’s heartland areas. Ironically it was a by-election that was narrowly lost, Dundee East in 1973, which prompted the one and only real urban breakthrough – the SNP gained the seat the following year and held on until 1987, repeating their victory in this constituency at the most recent Holyrood election.
Favourable boundary changes now mean that the party would be extremely disappointed not to follow both this result and the similar one achieved in Ochil in 2003 with victories at the general election as well, though the SNP’s other gain from Labour at the Scottish parliamentary election (Aberdeen North) looks more difficult to repeat. Prospects in the central belt look bleaker, as although the SNP lies in second place in almost all Labour-held seats, they fell back in 2001 in possible longshots such as Kilmarnock, and failed to make any breakthroughs at the 2003 Scottish elections.
This leaves possible targets in Dumfries Galloway and the Western Isles as the only good bets outside of the North East Scotland area (including neighbouring Perthshire and Ochil) where one constituency has been lost in boundary changes, reducing the SNP from five to four Westminster seats. With the Conservatives better positioned for a regain in Angus as a result of boundary changes, the SNP will be doing well to equal their 1997 tally of six seats, and they may do worse unless nationalist voters are persuaded that Westminster, as opposed to Holyrood, still matters.
The other main focus at this election will be on whether the Conservatives can make a substantial recovery to follow their solitary gain of Galloway Upper Nithsdale in 2001.
Promising signs included the party finishing top of the poll in no fewer than thirteen constituencies at the 2004 European elections (in Scotland the results were counted and published by parliamentary constituency rather than by council area as elsewhere). They also won three constituency seats at the 2003 Scottish parliamentary elections: Ayr, Edinburgh Pentlands and Galloway.
But disaster has now struck, with the extensive boundary changes effectively abolishing or at least radically altering all three of these constituencies and at the general election the Tories must again start from zero. Several other seats are within range, including Angus, the new Dumfries Galloway, maybe Moray and Aryll Bute and even the two Perthshire seats. However, the suspicion remains that the Conservatives will find any sort of breakthrough beyond the odd gain extremely difficult – it is hard for example to conceive of them regaining seats in Edinburgh or Aberdeen, particularly where they have sunk to third place.
This is still partly a legacy of the Thatcher years, when feelings over for example the use of Scotland as a poll tax ‘guinea pig’ pushed the Conservatives beyond the pale, although it took until 1997 for the depth of this hostility to reach ultimate fruition in the wipe-out of the Tories north of the border.
Tactical voting also played a key role – for example the opposition united behind the SNP in Perthshire and Galloway, Labour in suburban seats like Eastwood and the Liberal Democrats in West Aberdeenshire. Whether this tactical voting now starts to unravel will be key to Conservative fortunes at this election, and the situation may be confused in many areas by the boundary changes which have taken place. It should also be remembered that in the past, the Conservatives consistently enjoyed a solid minority of support in Scotland, and even though pushed right back to their core, they continue to poll well in the rural belt north of Stirling and Perth and parts of southern Scotland
Finally, no one is expecting a breakthrough for minor parties to match the 2003 Scottish elections, when no fewer than seventeen of the 127 Holyrood seats went outside of the four main parties.
Nevertheless the Scottish Socialists will continue to cause problems for Labour on their leftward flank, particularly in Glasgow, and a strong Independent challenge to match that in 2003 in Strathkelvin Bearsden should not be ruled out. One ‘other’ who is fully expected to gain election is current Speaker Michael Martin, who in line with parliamentary tradition is not expected to be opposed in his redrawn Glasgow North East seat by the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
Traditionally the weakest part of the United Kingdom for the Conservative Party and among the strongest for Labour, Wales contains three distinct electoral battlegrounds at the general election.
In the south, Labour face challenges from all three of the other main parties from Monmouth (the best prospect for the Conservatives) past Cardiff Central (a likely Liberal Democrat gain) and Llanelli (a Plaid Cymru target) to the two Pembrokeshire seats, which along with Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan are possible, though less likely, Conservative gains.
In the north, a narrow band of more traditional Labour–Tory marginals extends practically the length of the coastline, from the Vale of Clwyd in the east (Rhyl) past Clwyd West (Colwyn Bay) to Conwy (Llandudno and Bangor). To be making serious progress one would expect the Tories to regain Clwyd West at the very least, but this looks far from certain.
In the far north west can be found one of the most interesting constituencies of all, the Isle of Anglesey or Ynys Mon, which has been held by all four parties over the postwar period.
In between these two strips, Mid and West Wales contains a vast area but few constituencies, though they comprise a third category of seats where Labour are involved only as bystanders.
The Liberal Democrats will aim to again hold Brecon Radnorshire at the expense of the Conservatives, while trying to improve their position in Ceredigion (whose largest town is Aberystwyth) at the expense of Plaid Cymru.
The nationalists should hold on to their three other seats; Caernarfon and Meirionydd form part of their largest stronghold area in north-west Wales while further south Carmarthen East Dinefwr is also an area with a long-standing nationalist tradition, though the constituency was only regained in 2001. Labour are hopeful of reversing the loss this time and it is undoubtedly the case that Plaid Cymru has been in something of a retreat in Wales since making significant inroads at the 1999 elections for the Welsh Assembly. On that occasion they famously gained the Labour strongholds of Islwyn and Rhondda as well as Carmarthen East and Conwy to win eight constituencies in all – the party’s best ever performance.
In local elections they gained both Caerphilly and Rhondda Cynon Taff as Labour lost significant ground in their valleys heartlands. But this was to prove the turning point, with only the gain of Carmarthen repeated at the 2001 general election, when they also lost Ynys Mon following the decision of Ieuan Wyn Jones to move to the Assembly. The second set of Welsh elections was to see the nationalists lose ground to Labour (who reversed their losses of four years earlier) and most observers expect this trend to continue in 2005/6, with little likelihood of further Plaid Cymru gains.
Labour are unlikely to be so fortunate where the Liberal Democrats are the main opposition, although in Wales such a scenario only applies in a single seat, Cardiff Central. This will surely be one of the most straightforward Lib Dem gains from Labour in the country – their huge lead of 55-20 per cent in the most recent Welsh Assembly election suggests it could be by a large margin. Given the weakness of Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems will also have their eyes on regaining Ceredigion, which they held until 1992, but further gains are unlikely. Conwy in particular seems to have disappeared as a serious prospect after their vote was severely squeezed in 2001.
Activists will also concentrate on Brecon Radnorshire, a keenly-fought marginal for several contests now, which the Conservatives believe they can regain. Montgomeryshire remains the only safe Liberal Democrat seat, with Lembit Öpik enjoying a 20 per cent lead in 2001.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here
Elections in Northern Ireland take place with an entirely different party system from that found in Britain; Labour and the Liberal Democrats do not operate in the province and the Conservatives are a weak splinter party.
Voting is determined to a large extent by the nationalist-unionist (Catholic-Protestant) cultural and political divide, with the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) competing for the unionist vote and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Sinn Fein (SF) competing for the nationalist vote.
There are several smaller unionist parties that poll significant votes in some areas, particularly in elections for the Northern Ireland Assembly, and a couple of parties that attract a cross-communal, largely liberal middle class vote – the Alliance and the Northern Ireland Women’s Coalition.
While few seats changed hands in Britain in the 2001 general election, seven of the eighteen seats in Northern Ireland switched allegiance, and turnout was actually up, from 67 per cent to 68 per cent. The DUP won considerable ground from the UUP, with gains in Belfast North, Strangford and Londonderry East, while SF won two rural western seats, Fermanagh South Tyrone and Tyrone West from the UUP. The UUP exacted a measure of revenge by picking up Down North, previously represented by Robert McCartney for the smaller UK Unionist Party, and recovering a 2000 by-election loss in Antrim South.
It is unlikely that so many seats will switch at the coming election, although the presence or absence of candidates from particular parties can cause apparently safe seats to become marginal, and vice versa, as a result of decisions made close to an election. Lady Hermon’s victory in Down North, for instance, was made much easier by the decision of the Alliance Party to stand down in her favour, which probably boosted the UUP share by 15-20 percentage points.
Political developments since 2001 have tended to continue the trend, apparent at that election, for the parties of the centre to lose ground. Sinn Fein became the leading nationalist party in 2001 and continued to see its vote grow in the 2003 Assembly elections and 2004 European elections.
The SDLP, under new leader Mark Durkan, needs to strengthen its organisation and demonstrate its continued relevance if it is to have a chance of reversing its decline. There are likely to be serious SF challengers in two of its three Westminster seats.
On the unionist side of the fence, Ian Paisley’s DUP has been prospering, while David Trimble’s UUP has undergone a troubled period and lost its position as the leading unionist party at the 2003 Assembly election.
For a complete list of all constituencies click here.
And for the full results from the 2001 election click here.
Source: Politico’s guide to the general election, by Simon Henig and Lewis Baston ISBN1 84275 0739.
