Financial Times FT.com

Undercover economist: Keep it real

By Tim Harford

Published: January 26 2007 15:53 | Last updated: January 26 2007 15:53

It stands to reason that distance is dead. Electronic communication is better and cheaper than it’s ever been. Sitting on the sofa just now, I used a cheap laptop computer to log on to my neighbour’s wireless network and order a free quad-band mobile phone that – I am told – will let me make calls and send e-mails from almost anywhere in the world.

More to the point, nobody would be remotely surprised to hear it. Virtual worlds, BlackBerries, video-conferencing from the local Starbucks – it has all become so easy, and so commonplace, so quickly.

Intuitively, that should mean that geography becomes less important. E-mail and video-conferencing mean fewer flights. No more business conferences or meetings at Davos. Telecommuters don’t need to clog up the roads, and property prices in London and New York should slide as people carry out their investment-banking responsibilities from Anglesey or Iowa.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that there’s something wrong with this argument. Despite the ease of communication and the fall in the cost of transporting goods, for most people geography seems to be as important as ever. People haven’t stopped flying for meetings and conferences; the World Economic Forum meetings are now a round-the-calendar circus in more than 10 countries. New York is one of the few places in the US where the property market isn’t stuttering. In the US, a few hotspot cities are sucking in ever-larger concentrations of young educated workers.

So what is happening? To some extent, the same thing that happened to the paperless office. It turned out that all those computers made it easy and cheap to produce a lot of documents. Yes, the documents could in principle have been viewed on screen, but why not print them out?

Similarly, e-mail, internet networking and cheap phone calls have made it easy to maintain a lot of relationships. In principle some of them could be restricted to cyberspace, but how much fun is that? The same e-mail that allows you to maintain a long-distance business relationship also creates demand for more travel as people try to establish those relationships in the first place.

Closer to home, communication technology makes it easier than ever to arrange a drink with friends. Just e-mail a distribution list or post the invitation on your online journal. This spontaneity isn’t much use if your friends are hundreds of miles away.

E-mail and mobile phones aren’t substitutes for face-to-face contact at all. As the economists Jess Gaspar and Ed Glaeser have pointed out, they are complements to it.

Other technological changes have also strengthened the importance of place. If you can buy cars or films or insurance from anywhere in the world, why not buy from the place that hosts the best or cheapest producer? Cities that were once nationally dominant can become international champions too. It becomes more valuable, not less valuable, to locate in New York or London.

Face-to-face meetings have always fostered trust and clearer communication. Nicholas Crafts, an economic historian who recently concluded a talk at Oxford with the message “Distance is alive and well,” believes that this is crucial.

The modern economy demands ever more complicated, fast-moving and creative projects. Formal contracts just aren’t up to the task of keeping us honest in these circumstances, which means you need to be able to trust your colleagues – something that still requires you to look them in the eyes. The conference circuit is likely to be with us for a while.

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