Am I the only person wondering how mortgage rates that are roughly the same as a year ago, a bank base rate that is lower and certain to be cut further by the year end, energy and commodity prices that are finally falling, inflation that looks likely to have peaked, a more realistic sterling-dollar exchange rate, and unemployment that is expected to rise at worst by 1-1.5 percentage points in the coming year really can add up to economic conditions that “are arguably the worst they’ve been in 60 years”?

Last week’s remarks by the chancellor struck me as less of a measured assessment and more of a clumsy exercise in expectation management ahead of an umpteenth “relaunch”. Or a strange desire to emulate Norman Lamont, not just in housing market intervention but also in a devaluation-led recovery ploy. Or an attempt to drive down the asking price of the London residence he’ll be needing after vacating No 11.

But before you write in accusing me of glib cynicism, I should point out that these questions are an attempt to help investors make an important decision. Is the equities glass half empty, or half full – and are we at a “tipping point”?

Because this week, I met two fund managers with contrasting solutions for those looking through the bottom of a glass of invigorating tonic water, and those with a spilt pint.

Permal, the manager of the London-listed Dexion Trading fund of hedge funds, argues that even if the market has touched its low, there will be more investment spillages in a “bumpy” environment. It describes 2008 as one of the most challenging periods in the 35 years that it has been managing hedge funds – due to the reversal of emerging markets and the summer turnaround in energy and commodities. But, according to senior executive officer Omar Kodmani, any notion that there’s been “a shift from a protracted credit-crunch slowdown into a sudden feeling that everything’s OK, inflation’s going away, and financials are alright is unrealistic.”

In his view, the “system isn’t fixed”, therefore the volatility will be more drawn out. In this kind of environment, macro hedge fund strategies – whereby managers try to identify long-short trading and arbitrage opportunities in currencies, commodities and equity indices – have shown their worth. Macro hedge funds were among the few to perform in 2001-02 and have returned 3.8 per cent this year, as measured by the Hedge Fund Research strategy index. But as this index is as untrackable as it is opaque, Permal advocates its fund of funds approach. With holdings in 30-50 macro funds, it has produced annual returns in the 8-12 per cent rage over rolling 12 month and 3-year periods for the last 15 years, with volatility in a target range of 4-6 per cent.

Matterley, the new fund partnership set up by former New Star manager Henry Dixon and colleagues, sees more bubbles – and value – in its glass. Dixon makes the point that the UK market tends to perform strongly when sterling is weak – shares rose 25 per cent during the Lamont- ERM devaluation of September 1992 to February 1993. Equities have also risen during periods of falling inflation – the only exception in 40 years being the dotcom collapse in 2000.

So, with sterling set to weaken to $1.60 on a 12-month view and inflation peaking, Matterley believes a value-investing approach can capture the inevitable upside. Hence the launch this week of its Undervalued Returns Fund, which focuses on assets and returns on capital, rather than reported earnings.

Specifically, it uses the ratios of price to book value (P/B), enterprise value to invested capital (EV/IC) and return on invested capital to weighted average cost of capital (Roic/Wacc). This alphabet soup, it claims, can identify returns that are currently undervalued by the market.

Instances where Roic/Wacc exceeds EV/IC have been profitable buying signals, and the reverse has proven a good sell discipline. For example, the methodology bought First Group in March 2004 at 265p, sold in March 2007 at 675p, bought again in June at 520p – and suggest a price target of 675p beyond the current 593p. Keir is now “the acceptable face of housebuilding” with Roic/Wacc of 1.75 times, exceeding a EV/IC of 0.9 times. And the virtually debt-free Millennium & Copthorne has a low EV/IC back at 2003 levels, despite sitting on £215m of “hidden” book value in the form of a revaluation surplus.

Matterley’s fund will hold around 40 stocks chosen on this basis, and aim for long-term capital growth.

So whether your glass is half full or half empty, one of these funds should prove palatable. I’ll drink to that.

matthew.vincent@ft.com