Spread betters predict a Conservative win

The voting polls and the market are in disagreement about the possible result of the UK election, according to financial market website ADVFN.

New research reveals that amongst spread betting firms the Conservatives are currently the favourites to win the next general election with the average spread for Tory seats presently standing at 333-338. This would give the party more than enough seats because the winning line is 326 and would avoid the hung parliament indicated by the polls. Labour on the other hand is forecast to get 217-222 seats by spread betters.

One thing that the polls and spread betting firms are in agreement over is that the Liberal Democrats will come in a distant third, with betters forecasting seats of 59-62.

The last couple of weeks have seen the Conservatives pull away from Labour in spread betting terms with predicted Tory seats increasing by an average of 16 in the last nine days. Labour on the other hand has seen its star fall amongst speculators with forecast seats decreasing by 15.5.

“Spread betters certainly don’t seem to think there will be a hung parliament. Are speculators Tory or is the market right?” said Clem Chambers, chief executive of ADVFN. “There is major uncertainty in the polls but this is not reflected by speculators. Additionally, the FTSE 100 is powering along very nicely indeed, which also suggests a degree of certainty that a majority will be achieved.”

The FTSE 100 has experienced a 65.6 point, or 1.13 per cent, rise in the last nine days.