What next for Iran?

Iran is rarely out of the news, whether for its nuclear programme, its stance on Iraq, or the words of its leader, Mahmoud Ahmed-Nejad. But how are these issues viewed within Iran, and what does this mean for the approach of the international community?

Bijan Khajehpour answered your questions on Wednesday 7th November. Over the past 12 years, he has worked from Tehran as a strategic consultant analysing the country’s political and economic developments. He is the chairman and co-founder of the Atieh Group.

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What popular support does President Ahmedi-Nejad have?
Bodjnoud, Tehran

Bijan Khajehpour: President Ahmedi-Nejad was elected in June 2005 with 17 million votes in the second round of elections through a contest involving a number of different candidates. He ran his campaign on issues such as social justice and economic equality and that clearly resonated with the popular majority. Also through the first 2 years in office he has attended to issues of popular interest. We do not have accurate opinion polls to present a current picture, but a sizable section of the Iranian populace still supports the President, while some sections of society are certainly questioning the wisdom of the administration’s economic policies. The upcoming parliamentary elections in March 2008 will be a vote of confidence in the President.

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How stable is the country’s economy?
Oommen Cherian, Kerala, India

Bijan Khajehpour: The Iranian economy is more stable than many believe. Based on the UN’s purchasing power parity calculations, Iran’s GDP stands at more than $600 billion which is among the top 20 economies in the world. Right now it is being helped by the high oil prices, but it is a distorted economy due to many reasons. The footprints of the 1979 Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war can still be found in the economic management of the country.

The existence of subsidies and also the dominant role of the government are all unsettling factors for an economy that is trying to connect to the global economy. There are various initiatives to create a more balanced economic structure through privatization and also through rethinking the subsidies, but it will take time, especially as long as regional and international tensions persist.

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Who is your tip for the presidential election of 2009?
Tehrani, UK

Bijan Khajehpour: I believe Mohammad Baquer Ghalibaf, the current Mayor of Tehran would be an appealing candidate to many voters as he represents various constituencies such as the conservatives and the technocrats. Furthermore, he is a younger figure who can more easily connect to the youth which is a significant section of the population.

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Is Iran’s nuclear program really for peaceful purposes only, and not for nuclear warheads? How can we be sure?
Nuromeo Vinluan

Bijan Khajehpour: The best test for Iran’s mentality with regards to WMD (weapons of mass destruction) is the situation Iran was in during the 1980s. While Saddam’s Iraq was bombing Iran with chemical weapons (and while the world was just standing by) Iran made a moral decision not to use chemical weapons in return. In fact, there is a solid religious argument against WMD in Islam because they harm innocent people. I believe the Iranian government when it says that nuclear weapons are not part of its defense doctrine. The behaviour of the western world is very primitive, as it only assumes the intention without any real proof for nuclear weapons in Iran.

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The Iranian population is viewed from the outside as nationalistic bordering on jingoistic. The current regime in Iran is always noted as unpopular with its citizens. Has the pressure from Western governments over the nuclear issue caused the population to rally around its government?
Redmond, Philadelphia

Bijan Khajehpour: The pressures from the West regarding the Iranian nuclear issue have not only achieved nothing, but they have strengthened the position of those segments of government and society that believe that the western powers should never be trusted. There are many tensions between the government and the society, but they agree on a number issues, i.e. that Iran should stand up for its rights and that Iran (as an old civilization) should be respected more internationally. As long as the disrespect from western capitals persists, the Iranians are going to stick together.

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How effective would you say the current sanctions have been in curbing Iran’s alleged nuclear weapon’s program, and what has the impact been on the private businesses in Iran given the fact that doing business with the EU has become harder?
Mozzy, Baton Rouge, LA, USA

Bijan Khajehpour: The sanctions have had limited impact on Iran. We should never forget that Iran has lived under sanctions for some 28 years. The sanctions have had a major psychological impact on foreign and Iranian businesses, but if you come to Iran, you will realize that there is no clear shortage in anything.

The real impact of sanctions is that they make Iran’s import bill more expensive. That is more than compensated by the higher oil price that currently exists. The unofficial banking sanctions pursued by the US have hurt the private business community, but again the merchant community is too creative to stop its trading activities. Another impact is that Iranian government and private sector are now relying more on Eastern trade partners (China, India, Malaysia, and even Turkey and South Africa).

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What do you estimate is the probability of a military attack on Iran from the US or from Israel?
Shajahan, Russia

Bijan Khajehpour: I personally believe that a military attack is very unlikely. There are forces in Washington and Tel Aviv who would like to keep this option on the table so that they intimidate Iranians and other stakeholders. But if their true intention is to change the behaviour of Tehran in strategic issues, then the serious players know that such a goal cannot be achieved militarily. However, keeping the card on the table is helping their diplomatic and other objectives.

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It is sometimes said, the US invaded Iraq and Iran won. What would be the US’s most effective exit strategy from Iraq in relation to Iran?
Christian van Schayk, Santa Fe, NM, USA

Bijan Khajehpour: The US adventure in Iraq has failed, because the US has failed to understand the regional culture and regional relations. Iran, as one of the oldest states in this region, can benefit, because it knows the region best – a knowledge that the US is deprived of.

The post 9/11 developments have fundamentally changed the Persian Gulf region and the US exit strategy from Iraq has to take all the changes into account, i.e. the growing distrust of the regional governments and people in the West, the greater degree of trade, investment and interaction in the region, the emerging role of the eastern powers etc. The best exit strategy would be one that also involves Tehran in its decisions and implementation.

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Would Iran agree to end its arming of Hezbollah and Shiite brethren in Iraq if the US withdrew from Iraq and resumed diplomatic and economic ties?
Anon

Bijan Khajehpour: Iran’s official support for Hizbullah and the Shiite groups in Iraq is not military in nature. However, Iran has shown its willingness to engage in a strategic dialogue with the US to ease tensions. Unfortunately, the US has made such a dialogue impossible by attaching it to the nuclear enrichment program.

Iran’s May 2003 proposal to Washington which was unfortunately dismissed in the US, included an important gesture from Iran, i.e. Tehran communicated that it would revisit its regional policies and strategies, when Washington agrees to stop its interference in Iranian affairs. Therefore, a strategic understanding on regional issues could be developed through a respectful dialogue.

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What is your vision on the strategic developments in Middle East during next decade, from economic and political perspectives? In particular, how important is the growing influence of oil-rich Iran on the oil-dependent economies of developed countries, e.g. Japan.
Viktor O Ledenyov, Ukraine

Bijan Khajehpour: Over the past few decades, the Middle East has not managed to gain a strategic balance, because it has been driven by the competition of international and regional powers. However, while the main international power (the US) is losing its credibility in this region, another important phenomenon will shape the future of the Middle East, i.e. the emergence of a new generation of political and business leaders.

I believe that the new generation of the regional elite are more interested in cooperation as opposed to competition and hegemony. Therefore, once the enormous wealth of this region is managed by a more modern elite and political as well as business leadership, we will see a more progressive Middle East and one that will have greater significance internationally.

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What impact did the words used by Columbia University President Dr Lee Bollinger when introductng President Ahmedi-Nejad have among Iranians?
Erich, Taos, NM, USA

Bijan Khajehpour: The comments by Dr. Bollinger resonated very negatively among Iranians. He showed utter disrespect for the Iranian politician which translated into utter disrespect for Iran. We Iranians have a sense of duty towards our guests and we do not use direct and impolite language to communicate our sentiments, so Dr. Bollinger’s approach was very un-Iranian. At the end of the day, his performance underlined the general perceptions of the US in Iran which is that we are dealing with an arrogant, disrespectful bully.

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