In its recent disputes with Georgia and Ukraine, Russia has been crashing around like a bear in a china shop. As a result, the west has been hyperventilating about the dangers of Russia’s resurgence and a new cold war. But as the global financial crisis and collapsing commodity prices shake Russia’s economy and strain its political system, the west may soon be worrying again about the country’s weaknesses rather than its strengths.

Just as economic booms amplify a country’s assets, so busts magnify their frailties. This crisis is rapidly exposing the design flaws in Vladimir Putin’s project: the failure to create impartial state institutions; the elimination of constitutional checks and balances; and a potentially brittle social compact dependent on the Kremlin delivering the economic goods. In such dangerous times it is all the more urgent for the west and Russia to devise new rules of engagement.