The narrowlead for Labour among those certain to vote will throw a wobbly into the election. Six in 10 - 61 per cent to be precise - of the sample of 2,256 electors say they are "absolutely certain to vote". Labour has 36 per cent, the Conservatives 34 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 23 per cent.

Coming after yesterday's 10-point Labour NOP lead in The Independent, its 10-point lead in the Populus tracker and its six-point lead in the ICM/Mirror/GMTV poll, the findings give the Conservatives hope that their day may yet come. In addition, among those certain to vote, ICM has a Conservative party lead.