To well-nigh universal relief in Brussels, the UK House of Commons has decided there will be no referendum in Britain on the Treaty of Lisbon. Parliamentary ratification will be all that is required. Gordon Brown’s solid Labour majority should guarantee approval, in spite of a few rebels in his ranks.

The British decision means that Ireland will be the only member state to hold a referendum – as required by its constitution – on the package of European Union institutional reforms negotiated over the past five years. So what are the chances of one of the smallest member states blocking the process, as it did once before in voting No to the Treaty of Nice?