The right-wing anti-immigration party of Geert Wilders was poised to become the second-biggest Dutch party in the European parliament, exit polls showed on Thursday night, a result that will send shockwaves through domestic politics and may point to wider European trends.

The forecast – the first indication of results in pan-European polls that run across the 27-member bloc until Sunday – bore out predictions that large centrist parties stood to lose ground to smaller parties with closely targeted messages.