Like an Indian summer, the timing of the dollar’s appreciation was hard to call – and it may prove equally short-lived. In the event, its comeback was based not on the strength of US fundamentals, but on weakness elsewhere and declining oil prices. A faltering of the US economy has long been expected but has yet to materialise, while the eurozone and Japan have started to contract. Yet, a continuation of the correction is not a one-way bet.

For the past year, the weak dollar helped the US economy to stay afloat, reducing imports and increasing exports. Meanwhile, the eurozone has had to struggle with a strong euro, not only against the dollar but also against other currencies pegged to the dollar, most notably Asian currencies. A reversal of the trend would give eurozone exporters a breather – and help contain US inflation.