A striking feature of the financial crisis is how once-barely-thinkable numbers have lost their capacity to shock. So it is with Berlin’s latest official forecast that the German economy will shrink by a postwar record of 6 per cent this year – almost three times the 2.25 per cent slump foreseen only in January. It is now clear the export-led industrial model that boosted Germany in the upturn is intensifying its downturn. Germany is not alone in suffering from a collapse of export markets. Japan’s reliance on strong external demand has similarly been laid bare. The UK’s services-heavy model is cast in a more favourable light.