“We have to accelerate the rhythm of the revolution,” says President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, holding up a copy of a little red book to an audience of well-heeled supporters who have gathered in a Caracas hotel.

The book lists a series of constitutional changes that would allow Mr Chávez to centralise power, seek indefinite re-election and move more quickly towards his promised land of “21st-century socialism”.

If approved by voters in a referendum on Sunday, it will have a huge influence on Venezuela’s future.

It also appears to be part of a wider change that increases Mr Chávez’s influence in Latin America. Ecuador and Bolivia, whose left-wing presidents are allies of the Venezuelan leader and are also at important stages of plans to rewrite their constitutions, following a path initially charted by Mr Chávez when he first redrafted ­Venezuela’s constitution back in 1999.

On Thursday, members of a new Ecuadorean constitutional assembly dominated by President Rafael Correa will meet to elect officers ahead of next week’s official opening of the assembly. President Evo Morales of Bolivia is still aiming to complete the preparation of a new constitution by December 14, despite growing protests including a general strike that began on Wednesday in six opposition-dominated departments of the country.

Continental shift

VENEZUELA
Referendum date: Dec 2
Key provisions:
●Indefinite re-election of president and enhanced presidential powers
●Elimination of central bank autonomy
● Shorter working day
● Expanded social security
●Weakening of private property rights
●Increased role for the military in civil society

BOLIVIA
Referendum date
Final draft to be prepared by Dec 14
Key provisions
●Lifting of the ban on presidential re-election and greater state rule in the economy
●Enhanced recognition of indigenous rights and institutionalisation of indigenous autonomy
●Enmeshing of some elements of indigenous law with western law

ECUADOR
Referendum date
Drafting assembly meets to elect officers on Thursday
Key provisions
●Yet to be decided, although President Rafael Correa has indicated he wants the state to play a larger role in the economy

These developments take a big chunk of the region into new political territory, modifying in potentially important ways the US or European liberal model of democracy that has, if anything, become stronger in countries such as Brazil, Mexico and Chile in recent years.

Analysts worry in particular that the new centralisation planned by the powerful oil-rich Venezuelan leader will set a new template for his allies, weakening in these countries the checks and balances that have historically been an important part of Latin American development.

As Michael Shifter, of the Washington-based policy forum Inter-American Dialogue, says: “This is a new species in embryonic form, not just changes at the edges.”

Nonetheless, there is a genuine need of reform. In many ways, the proposed changes in Ecuador and Bolivia appear part of a wider process designed to modernise political systems and allow greater participation by socially marginal groups excluded from often-corrupt traditional ­parties.

During the 1980s and 1990s countries such as Brazil and Colombia, as well as Mr Chávez’s Venezuela, modernised their constitutions partly for the same reason.

The election of Mr Morales in December 2005 and Mr Correa in November 2006 has given greater impetus to this trend, because underprivileged indigenous groups, which form a majority of the population in Bolivia and a significant minority in Ecuador, gave powerful backing to both leaders.

“This all reflects the stirrings and awakenings of new groups that were outside the political system,” says Mr Shifter. “Constitutional change is a proxy for underlying social change.”

Jim Shultz, the head of the Democracy Center, a non-governmental organisation based in the Bolivian city of Cochabamba, goes further. He says changes in the country as the result of the rise of Quechua, Aymara and other indigenous groups are as important in their own way as the end of apartheid in South Africa or even the collapse of communist rule and subsequent break-up of Yugoslavia.

Economics has also helped reinforce this trend. The commodity boom means Mr Morales, who has huge gas reserves, and Mr Correa, who has oil, have not been so hemmed in by financial pressures as their more ­economically orthodox predecessors.

Money has been available to pursue populist economic policies, providing a cushion for political experimentation and keeping the popularity of all three leaders at relatively high levels. Recent figures from Santiago-based Latinobarómetro showed the three countries to be among the region’s five most popular governments, with Ecuador’s the most popular of all.

All this suggests change ought to be relatively peaceful. But there are reasons for scepticism. The debate on Bolivia’s new constitution has led to huge tensions between regions. Since the Bolivian constituent assembly first met in July, these divides – especially those between the richer, less-populated, mainly mixed-race lowlands and the mainly indigenous western highlands – have been the backcloth for constant instability.

This month the situation degenerated into violence, with at least four people killed and hundreds injured during protests over the weekend.

Ecuador too may not be immune from this danger. Like Bolivia, it is sharply divided between its indigenous highlands population and mestizo lowland business interests, this time concentrated in the powerful coastal city of Guayaquil.

Even in an ethnically more homogenous society such as Venezuela, the far-reaching character of many of the changes introduced alongside the new constitution after Mr Chávez first came to office has increased political polarisation.

The new proposals – which reverse some of the decentralisation introduced in earlier reforms and make community organisation directly dependent on the executive – could lead to further division.

Ricardo Gutiérrez, a socialist politician who joined a steady stream of defectors from the Chávez camp after the constitutional changes were announced, agrees. Mr Chávez ”still has to stand for election [at the moment]”, he says. “But can you imagine anyone with all this concentration of power losing an election?”