Azerbaijan, the newest supplier of oil and gas to Europe, faces an historic choice. It either escapes or succumbs to the “oil curse”, the combination of corrupt government and lopsided economic development that afflicts many oil producers.

This year is decisive, because what is already the world’s fastest-growing economy expects a record inflow of petro-dollars from high oil prices, increasing production, and a bigger share of profits from revenue-sharing arrangements with BP, the British energy group. Oil revenues this year, according to one senior western diplomat in Baku, could reach $30bn.