Other than appeasing protectionist politicians in Washington, will China’s modest revaluation and more flexible exchange rate regime make any difference to its economic relations with the rest of the world? The most likely answer is: little or none in the short term and possibly for much longer, writes Guy de Jonquières.
Most economists and financial markets think the changes far too small to have much impact on China’s surging exports and current account surplus. They also agree that additional rapid rises in the renminbi are needed. They may be disappointed. Beijing has long insisted that domestic economic conditions, not external pressures, determine its currency policy. While inflation remains subdued, and measures to cool hotspots such as Shanghai’s property markets remain effective, China has few reasons to rush into further revaluations.




