The British general election today will make little difference to the future of the European Union, assuming that Tony Blair is unenthusiastically re-elected prime minister for a third term, as the opinion polls all suggest.

The really decisive debate on Europe is taking place across the Channel in France. With little more than three weeks to go before the May 29 French referendum on the EU constitution, public opinion in that country is shifting - agonisingly slowly - back towards a Yes vote. It is going to be a cliffhanger until the last moment.