The cruising bug can be infectious. First timers who enjoy the experience tend to become advocates of shuffle board and dining at the captain’s table. And that enthusiasm among travellers of a certain age has some investors looking at demographic tables and concluding that the cruise line companies are a sure bet as baby boomers retire. The truth, however, is more complicated.

As demonstrated by first-quarter results from Carnival on Tuesday, cruising is as susceptible to recession as any other consumer-orientated industry. Guidance for the expected decline in net revenues this year was cut from a range of 6 to 10 per cent to 10 to 12 per cent. Bookings were up but only thanks to heavy price cuts. Evidence so far from the second quarter is discouraging, and there is a risk that, even with 45 per cent of the total cruise ship market, Carnival will have to discount further as the year progresses.