The five biggest insurers in the Lloyd's market could have excess capital of about £1bn by the end of next year, raising the prospect of cash being returned to shareholders, Fox-Pitt, Kelton, the broker owned by Swiss Re, forecast yesterday.

Neil Manser, analyst at Fox-Pitt, which specialises in banks and insurance, said the five biggest Lloyd's insurers - Amlin, Brit Insurance, Catlin, Hiscox and Wellington Underwriting - could on average have excess capital equivalent to 25 per cent of their capitalisations by the end of 2006.