What has been true for seven consecutive policy meetings is true now. The Federal Open Market Committee will raise its target interest rate by one-quarter of one percentage point in its Tuesday meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 2.75 per cent.

Improved communication - including speedier publication of the committee's deliberations - has brought us to the point where monetary policy is predictable a few days in advance. The real question, however, is not about today but about what will happen over the next year. How many more interest rate increases are coming? How high should the FOMC go, and how fast should it go to get there?